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HomeMy WebLinkAbout220-5840 San Bernardino Council Meeting Presentation 06.24.20220-5840 City of San Bernardino Issues Survey Survey Conducted May 30-June 3, 2020 1 Methodology Surveys completed by a random sample of 437 City of San Bernardino residents who are likely to vote in the November 2020 election Survey conducted online and by phone (mobile phones and landlines) between May 30-June 3, 2020 Margin of error: +/-4.9% Interviews conducted in English and Spanish Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding Some questions tracked to previous survey conducted for the City in 2019 and 2007 2 3 Perceptions of the City’s need for additional funding remains extraordinarily high. Q4. Do you think the City of Oxnard has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding to provide the level of City services that local residents need and want? 70% 18% 4% 5% 3% Great need Some need A little need No real need Don’t know 67% 17% 7% 5% 5% August 2019 Great/ Some Need 83% A Little/No Real Need 12% June 2020 Great/ Some Need 88% A Little/No Real Need 9% 4 12% 19% 51% 7% 5% 8% There is significant concern about the direction of the local economy, but more than half say their personal financial situation will not change or will improve. Q2. Do you believe that _______________ will get better, worse, or stay about the same over the next year or so? 6% 18% 22% 26% 21% 7% Total Better 24% Total Worse 47% Much better Somewhat better Stay about the same Somewhat worse Much worse Don’t know Total Better 30% Total Worse 11% The City of San Bernardino’s Economy Your Personal Financial Situation 5 Q10. Looking ahead (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “a few weeks”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “6 months”), do you think the coronavirus pandemic will generally be under control or not? Split Sample Q11. Looking ahead (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “a few weeks”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “6 months”), do you think the San Bernardino economy will have recovered or not? Split Sample 28% 36% 18% 20% 54% 44% A few weeks 6 months Pandemic Under Control Don't Know Pandemic Not Under Control 13% 21% 11% 14% 76% 65% A few weeks 6 months Local Economy Recovered Don't Know Local Economy Not Recovered Nearly half of voters think the coronavirus pandemic will not be under control within six months and an even greater number think the economy will not recover in that time. 6 Six-in-ten voters are more concerned about social distancing ending too soon compared to three-in-ten who worry it will go on too long. Q12. When it comes to social distancing and the closure of businesses in the City of San Bernardino, which of the following concerns you more right now? 61% 29% 11% Social distancing will end too soon and prolong the epidemic, endangering the economy and putting lives at risk Social distancing will go on and cause unnecessary damage to the economy and residents’ livelihoods Both/Neither/Don't know OR 7 8 Sales Tax Ballot Measure Tested in Survey (Same as Baseline Survey) Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? San Bernardino City Services/Public Safety Measure To prevent reductions to City services including police, 911 emergency response, gang/prostitution prevention programs, street/pothole repairs, park/library maintenance, youth after-school, senior and homelessness programs, cleaning public areas, retaining/attracting businesses, and other general services, shall a measure extending the City of San Bernardino’s sales tax at a 1% rate, providing approximately $40 million annually until ended by voters, requiring independent audits, oversight, all funds used locally, be adopted? 9 Two-thirds of respondents support the sales tax measure on the initial reading, similar to the results in August 2019. Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? 2019 2020 44% 20% 5% 1% 5% 20% 4% Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided Total Yes 69% Total No 26% 64% 38% 25% 3% 4% 7% 13% 10% Total Yes 66% Total No 24% 63% 10 74% 61% 70% 66% 62% 77% 57% 10% 25% 29% 26% 27% 12% 32% 16% 13% 1% 7% 11% 11% 11% 1 (Sanchez) 2 (Ibarra) 3 (Figueroa) 4 (Shorett) 5 (Nickel) 6 (Richard) 7 (Mulvihill) Total Yes Total No Undecided Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Initial Vote by City Council Ward (% of Sample) (9%) (13%) (15%) (20%) (12%) (20%) (11%) Support for the measure is at or near 60% in every City Council District. 11 12 Ext./Very Impt. 88% 87% 84% 84% 83% 82% 82% 53% 59% 48% 44% 48% 49% 43% 35% 29% 35% 39% 35% 33% 40% 8% 8% 10% 12% 12% 10% 13% 5% Protecting local businesses and jobs Addressing homelessness Cleaning public areas Preventing reductions to 911 emergency response services Preventing reductions to police response Reducing home and auto break-ins Ext. Impt.Very Impt.Smwt. Impt.Not Too Impt.Don't Know Q13. Please return to the San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure you considered earlier, which would prevent reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a 1% rate. I am now going to read you a list of possible projects, features and provisions that might be included in this local ballot measure. Regardless of your opinion of the measure overall, please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is to you personally: is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? ^Not Part of Split Sample The highest priorities for funding include protecting local businesses and jobs, addressing homelessness, responding to emergencies and maintaining public safety. ^Maintaining the City’s long-term financial ability to effectively respond to emergencies 13 Ext./Very Impt. 81% 81% 79% 78% 77% 76% 43% 42% 36% 40% 38% 43% 38% 39% 43% 38% 39% 33% 14% 13% 13% 14% 15% 18% 5% 5% Retaining and attracting businesses Preventing reductions to street and pothole repair services Improving City services Preventing reductions to anti-gang and prostitution prevention programs ^Making parks, including restrooms and drinking fountains, cleaner and safer Maintaining streetlights Ext. Impt.Very Impt.Smwt. Impt.Not Too Impt.Don't Know Q13. Please return to the San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure you considered earlier, which would prevent reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a 1% rate. I am now going to read you a list of possible projects, features and provisions that might be included in this local ballot measure. Regardless of your opinion of the measure overall, please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is to you personally: is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? ^Not Part of Split Sample Other priorities include retaining/attracting businesses, street repairs and improving City services generally. 14 15 46% 47% 49% 36% 27% 25% 82% 75% 74% Much More Incl.Smwt. More Incl. Q14. I am going to read you some statements from people who may support the San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure which would prevent reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a one percent rate. Please tell me if this makes you more inclined to vote Yes on this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample (ROADS) San Bernardino’s streets and roads require substantial repair and repaving. Independent pavement management engineers rated nearly 80% of the roads in San Bernardino as either poor or very poor. The costs of getting all of the City’s streets up to established standards is estimated at more than $200 million. If we do not address this infrastructure issue now, it will get worse and will cost more to fix in the long run. (SAFETY) The state is releasing parolees into our community early, property crime is on the rise, and gang activity from surrounding communities is impacting safety for San Bernardino residents. Despite efforts to maintain police services, the City has not been able to keep up with the increase in crime rates. This measure will provide funding that can be used to hire more police officers to make our community safer. ^(ACCOUNTABILITY) This measure includes accountability requirements such as public disclosure of all spending, oversight from a citizen committee, and annual independent financial audits that ensure funds are used as voters intended and only to benefit San Bernardino city residents. The most impactful messages about the measure reference roads, public safety and accountability. 16 47% 44% 49% 26% 27% 21% 73% 71% 70% Much More Incl.Smwt. More Incl. Q14. I am going to read you some statements from people who may support the San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure which would prevent reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a one percent rate. Please tell me if this makes you more inclined to vote Yes on this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample (QUALITY OF LIFE) This measure will provide funding for better-maintained streets, improved local parks, safer and cleaner neighborhoods, and rapid 911 emergency response. The goal of the measure is to strengthen our community, help us recover from the current crisis, and make San Bernardino a better place to live, do business and raise a family. ^(EMERGENCY) The City must ensure that we can respond to any public health or catastrophic emergency including updating emergency communication systems, maintaining rapid 911 emergency response times, preparing our local police services, and improving the health, cleanliness and safety of our community. (GANGS) We need to protect our kids from gangs and drugs. This measure provides funding to continue anti-gang and anti-drug prevention programs for at-risk youth and their families, as well as after-school programs for students that help prevent them from dropping out and keep them off the streets. Messages that reference improvements to quality of life services, emergency response and gangs also resonate strongly. 17 69% 76% 66% 66% 69% 60% 26% 19% 24% 24% 20% 28% 4% 4% 10% 10% 11% 12% Initial Vote After Information After Opposition Initial Vote After Information After Opposition Total No Total Yes Undecided Similar to the baseline survey, after an exchange of information support for the measure remains above the majority vote threshold. Q6, Q15 & Q17. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? 2019 2020 50% 18 19 Survey Structure Half Sample “Split Roll” Prop 13 County Fire Protection Tax Repeal City Sales Tax Half Sample County Fire Protection Tax Repeal City Sales Tax Service Users’ Tax Reduction 20 35% 21% 4% 4% 9% 23% 5% Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided Total Yes 59% Total No 36% Nearly six-in-ten local voters support the Split Roll measure on commercial property tax. Q4. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample 56% 21 25% 10% 4% 5% 14% 31% 10% Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided Total Yes 40% Total No 50% A majority of voters oppose the Fire Protection Tax repeal measure, but four-in-ten support it. Q5 Total. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? 35% 22 41% 40% 37% 49% 50% 54% 10% 10% 9% Democrats Independents Republicans Total Yes Total No Undecided Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Fire Protection Tax Vote by Party (% of Sample) (54%) (24%) (22%) The lack of major differences in support levels on the measure by party imply some voter confusion. 23 18% 14% 2% 5% 17% 31% 13% Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no Undecided Total Yes 35% Total No 52% A small majority of voters oppose a Service Users’ Tax reduction measure. Q5 Total. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? 35% 24 25 Conclusions A renewal of the San Bernardino city sales tax at a one-cent rate is viable to be placed on the November 2020 ballot. The measure enjoys high initial support which increases after information. Communication with voters and stakeholders is important to educate the public about the City’s needs. Understanding of the City’s need for additional funding remains extraordinarily high. Support for the sales tax is slightly lower than in the August 2019 survey which is likely due to a combination of the discussion of other ballot measures in the survey, as well as strong levels of concern about the coronavirus pandemic, the associated health impacts and its effect on the economy.